Timing...

Why Being Late Might Be The Best Move

Being right on time (Top), Being early (Bottom Right), Being late (Bottom Left)

After witnessing countless startup successes and failures, one truth becomes undeniable: the correlation between founder intelligence, work ethic, and business outcomes isn't as straightforward as we'd like to believe. Some brilliant, hardworking founders fail spectacularly, while others who seem less exceptional achieve disproportionate success. I think sometimes the difference may come down to timing.

Luck Favors the Prepared—and the Patient

What we call "luck" in business isn't randomly distributed cosmic fortune. It's opportunity meeting preparation at the right moment. The key insight is that luck may be evenly distributed, but your ability to receive and act on it when it arrives depends entirely on timing and preparation. Are you positioned to capitalize when your moment comes? Will you still be operating when opportunity knocks?

But nobody arrives exactly on time—that perfect moment is too precise, too fleeting to capture deliberately. This reality forces every founder to confront a fundamental choice: arrive early or arrive late.

The Early Bird = Endurance Test

Showing up early to a market means you're essentially a surfer paddling out before the waves arrive. You will spend a lot of time treading water, not knowing when your wave will arrive. Maybe you're pioneering cutting-edge technology before markets exist, patenting innovations that don't yet have names, building prototypes for problems people don't know they have.

Being early is fundamentally an endurance game. The question becomes: how long can you tread water? Can you survive the extended period of market education, customer acquisition, and resource management while waiting for the world to catch up to your vision? The risk is exhaustion—burning through capital, energy, and team morale before your wave finally arrives.

The Late Arrival = Execution Challenge

Arriving late means entering an established market as the 20th social network or the 41st project management tool. Here, timing transforms from an endurance test into an execution challenge. You're the surfer racing to catch a wave that is already breaking, relying on superior paddling speed rather than patience.

Late arrival demands exceptional execution. You must outperform established players who have first-mover advantages, existing customer bases, and market recognition. But you also benefit from validated demand, established infrastructure, and lessons learned from early pioneers' mistakes.

Often Times Second to Market, Means First to Finish

If you are looking for guidance on which to choose, look to history. The most successful companies in history overwhelmingly chose to arrive late—and then execute brilliantly:

Microsoft didn't invent the operating system; they refined and distributed it better than anyone else. Apple revolutionized existing concepts—the GUI, the mouse, smartphones, tablets—rather than creating entirely new categories. Google entered search eight years after the first search engine launched, but delivered superior results and user experience. Facebook arrived seven years after the first social networks, focusing on execution over innovation.

Even Uber literally copied Lyft's ride-sharing innovation and then out-executed them in market expansion, driver acquisition, and operational efficiency.

Why Late Often Wins

Late entrants enjoy several strategic advantages:

Market validation removes the guesswork about demand. Someone else has already proven people want the solution.

Infrastructure maturity means supporting technologies, payment systems, and user behaviors are established.

Talent availability increases as the industry grows and early companies train workforces.

Clearer competitive landscape allows for more informed strategic positioning.

Learning from others' mistakes accelerates development and reduces costly errors.

The Strategic Choice

When deciding your timing strategy, a founder must honestly assess their strengths and resources. Do you have the capital, patience, and market-building skills required to be early? Or do you excel at execution, optimization, and competitive positioning required to show up late and still win?

The evidence suggests that unless you have compelling reasons to be early—truly proprietary technology, unique market insights, or exceptional endurance capabilities—you should seriously consider arriving strategically late. Focus instead on developing the execution skills needed to out-compete existing players rather than the market evangelism required to create new categories.

Timing as Competitive Advantage

Strategic timing isn't about being first; it's about being best in the dimension that matters the most. The goal isn't to start the race first—it's to finish first. In a world obsessed with innovation and first-mover advantage, sometimes the smartest move is watching others validate the market, then entering later with superior execution.

Your timing decision will fundamentally shape your company's trajectory. Choose wisely, prepare thoroughly, and remember: when your wave finally arrives, you will still need the energy, endurance and grit to ride it all the way to shore.